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illusionofjoyMark it down ladies and gentlemen: Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination on May 20th. I know this because Senator Obama said so himself. Clinton campaign strategist Howard Wolfson puts it best in saying that, "you can declare mission accomplished but that doesn't mean that the mission has actually been accomplished." I find the Bush allusion particularly appropriate as it is shaping up to look like Barack Obama has about as much respect for popular vote tallies as our current "president."
There is a lot of crowing going on about pledged delegates, and it is the delegate count that Obama is using to make his claim on the 20th. At that point, his campaign expects to have a two-thirds majority of the delegates (never mind that this isn't the "magic" 2,025 required, Obama is changing the rules and it's okay to change the rules if your name isn't Hillary Clinton).
Popular vote totals:
Clinton: 15,113,024 (47.26%)
Obama: 15,824,994 (49.48%)
These calculations favour Obama by two and a quarter percentage points. A definite lead, but not a terribly impressive one. Here's what happens when you add Florida and Michigan into the mix, as should be done:
Popular vote totals:
Clinton: 16,312,319 (47.52%)
Obama: 16,401,208 (47.78%)
This favours Obama by little more than a quarter of a percentage point. This "fart in the wind" could be easily blown away if Clinton wins in West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky, Montana and South Dakota. Clinton's Pennsylvania win put her in the lead until Obama's North Carolina win. Anyone telling you that the race isn't close or that Obama has some kind of mandate to declare himself the winner is a liar. Furthermore, anyone telling you that Michigan and Florida don't count (remember: the delegate may not exist, but the voters still do), is a fool willing to set the Democratic Party up for general election defeat.
Before the Indiana primary, the state was being trumpeted as the "tie-breaker." Initial polls had Clinton losing that state, along with North Carolina. However, after she won Indiana, somehow it was no longer a tie-breaker; somehow it no longer mattered. All that mattered was her double-digit defeat in North Carolina - a defeat we were all expecting anyhow. It was her win in Indiana - any win at all - which wasn't supposed to happen.
There have been many accusations of the Clinton camp "changing the rules" to suit their own ends, yet if such is the case, why does it seem like the Obama camp is doing exactly the same thing just as, if not more often. Furthermore, it doesn't seem like the Obama camp wants to win this election fairly, despite their chance to do so. Why else would Barack Obama go into heavy spin cycle and arrogantly set a date to declare himself the winner? Is he also going to claim that he is the King of France while he's at it?
I'm going to be blunt: we've already suffered through nearly eight years of having an arrogant prick in the White House; we don't deserve to suffer four more years of such behaviour. All of the votes must be counted and since Barack Obama has shown himself willing to railroad a nomination onto the Democratic electorate, as of right now I am no longer counting myself among supporters of Hillary Clinton who would be willing to vote for Barack Obama if he gets the nomination. This does not mean I will vote for John McCain, but if the election were held today, I would go into the voting booth and either write in "Hillary Clinton" or "NO CONFIDENCE."
I don't take this position or make this declaration lightly. I do not want a republican in the White House. However, I have come to a point where I am overwhelmingly disappointed in the actions and attitudes coming out of the Obama camp. I may yet change my mind before November, but if Obama is the nominee, he is going to have to earn my vote. The first step towards this will be learning some humility (or how to fake it effectively - he is a politician, after all).
Obama also needs to stop the race-baiting. Despite what windbags like Keith Olbermann would have you believe, it is Barack Obama who should be apologising for the damage done to Bill and Hillary Clinton and not the other way around. It was the Obama camp who played the race card, slandering the Clintons in order to garner more of the African-American vote. Never mind that Obama could have garnered the demographic without such despicable tactics and never mind that, while the Clintons are a lot of things, racist isn't one of them - Obama's campaign is now besmirched by these acts. African-Americans were played by a person who is supposedly one of their own and the increasing racial divisiveness in the polls is a burden which rests solely on Barack Obama's shoulders. He needs to repent for this horrible sin and, instead of making a speech or disavowing a former minister, he should start an actual conversation about race relations in the United States.
Finally, Barack Obama needs to condemn the actions of his most radical supporters. I speak not of those who simply prefer Obama, but those who go out of their way to vilify members of the other camp - those who carry the "with us or against us" attitude. Furthermore, he needs to speak out strongly against those who commitacts of electioneering in order to bolster his campaign. This will be his biggest challenge if he is nominated: how can he heal the wounds inflicted on Clinton supporters who have been so egregiously abused by his most zealous and irrational fans? Racism can not be "out" while sexism is still "in" - all prejudice must be eliminated.
To me, it seems that Barack Obama has a lot of cleaning to do in his own house before he is even remotely ready to enter the White House. I don't know if he can do it...or is even willing to.
Addendum:
The mainstream media, more often than not, has completely and utterly failed to maintain perspective in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, much favouring the latter. As such, it can seem lonely and disheartening to supporters of Hillary Clinton. Still, while some sites may have higher hit counts than others and be better known, for the time being, the internet remains the great equaliser. It can be a full breath of fresh air to discover that one is not alone in one's opinions and world-view. Thus, here are three pro-Hillary weblogs which I have been reading regularly:
